Election 2008

Party Building

Yesterday, I spent a good porton of the day travelling around the Roanoke Valley going to various GOP committee meetings and mass meetings, concluding with the excellent Reagan Day Dinner put on by the Roanoke City Republican Committee. Congratulations go out to Roanoke GOP Chair Adam Boitnott for an outstanding event!

For many Americans, their only exposure to politics is going to the voting booth once or twice a year and whatever they get watching Fox News or CNN. However, for political junkies like myself, yesterday's events represent what is so great about our American political system. It is people giving up their Saturday to freely assemble in local schools and government buildings to elect their local party representatives, listen to speeches from candidates and their surrogates, and discuss the issues of the day with other political animals.

In addition to experiencing American government at its most essential level, I also observed some encouraging signs for our Party. First, Republicans seem to be coalescing around John McCain. While there is still some grumbling when his name is mentioned, for the most part, the Republicans I have talked to realize that 1) He is the most electable candidate that we could have nominated and 2) He is way, WAY better than the alternatives.

Second, Republicans are excited about our ticket in 2009. As I said before, Bill Bolling may now be the most beloved Republican in Virginia for sparing his party from a bitter nomination fight. The McDonnell-Bolling team looks extremely strong and I believe that Republicans are going to be super-motivated to get back into the Governor's mansion for the first time since 2001.

Third, Jim Gilmore is ready for a fight. I've heard Gilmore speak three times in the last week and what has impressed me the most is the way that he has gone right after Mark Warner. While I was not initially thrilled at the prospect of Jim Gilmore as our Senate nominee, to me, Gilmore looks more like Senatorial timber every time I see him. Of course, he'll need that fighting spirit in order to get by the vigorous campaign of Bob Marshall. Marshall's supporters are very committed and they are engaging in some heavy duty arm-twisting among delegates to the state convention. Gilmore's delegate counters are going to earn their money.

In any case, I feel that all of the above is good for our Party and the longer the Dems fight amongst themselves, the rosier things look for John McCain and the GOP in '08. There are many months ahead and a great deal of work left to be done, of course, but there is no reason for Republicans to be hanging their heads and predicting doom for November. Instead, we need to work that much harder to ensure that the playing field doesn't shift back the other direction.

McCain's Executive Experience

Jim Geraghty over at NRO's Campaign Spot has a good post today highlighting John McCain's executive experience, that is, his leadership experience in the U.S. Navy.

Certainly being an executive in the military is a good sight different than being an executive in the political realm, but I think a good argument can be made that military leaders have a tougher task than their political counterparts. Logically then, success as a military leader could be more valuable than success as a political leader.

Here, in McCain's own words, is a good insight into what military leadership requires:

There are many qualities to military service that make it such a special profession. But among the most important is the ability to get things done no matter how difficult, confused or unexpected the situation. There is an old military maxim that battle plans never survive the first encounter with the enemy. Soldiers are taught to expect the unexpected and accept it, and revise, improvise, and fight their way through any adversity. That doesn’t mean the soldier doesn’t grumble or complain about unexpected changes in their fortunes, but they are trained to get things done no matter the circumstances.

In America, Bad Stuff Only Happens at 3 AM

Check out these dueling ads today from the Clinton and McCain campaigns:


VS


What I want to know is, why are these candidates trying to besmirch the reputation of the 0300 hour? What did 3:00 ever do to them? I guess someone was up all night after eating some bad seafood or something.

Got a Rumbling in Your Party? Shut it Up.

Have y'all seen those Burger King commercials that are made to play like pickup truck commercials? You know the ones where the people's stomachs start growling and they yell "Shut Up!" Well, that's about how I felt this afternoon when I read the comments by Dr. James Dobson that John McCain was "fracturing" the party.

I have great respect for Dr. Dobson on a great many things, but sometimes he needs to know when silence is a better option than speaking. I am reminded of Proverbs 17:28 which says that "Even a fool is thought wise if he keeps silent, and discerning if he holds his tongue." Typically, when Mr. Dobson comments on politics he prefaces it by saying that he is speaking only as a "private citizen." If that is so, perhaps his opinions would best be left private.

The truth of the matter is that John McCain is NOT fracturing the party, but rather he is putting the GOP in good position to actually win this November, against all odds. Are there Republicans who will sit on their hands and refuse to vote for McCain this November? Yes. But, there are also Democrats that will do the same for their Party's nominee.

While it is too early yet to put much stock in general election polling, particularly since the Democrats have yet to choose their nominee, the current polls should give encouragement to Republicans. John McCain is going to be competitive in a number of states that Bush lost in 2004. He is going to fare well in the states that Bush won. McCain is going to attract some "Reagan Democrats" back to the Party. McCain will be competitive against either Obama or Clinton on a wide range of issues.

Most importantly, MANY conservatives will vote for McCain in November. If Dr. Dobson is not among them, then that is too bad. But it will not affect the urgency with which conservative Republicans like myself work to ensure that the Democrats are denied the opportunity to take the Oath of Office in January 2009.

If Mr. Dobson wants to join us, we will welcome him. If not, he can keep it to himself.

Beer Drinkers Prefer McCain; Wine Lovers Like Dems

I love these kinds of surveys, despite the fact that they are almost entirely useless:

Beer drinkers appear more likely to vote for Sen. John McCain in November, while those who enjoy wine say they’re more likely to vote Democratic in the fall. Among registered voters who prefer beer to wine, McCain has a 53 percent-46 percent edge over Sen. Hillary Clinton while McCain winds up in a virtual tie with Sen. Barack Obama among beer drinkers. In the head-to-head match-ups with McCain, Sens. Obama and Clinton each win a majority among registered voters who prefer wine to beer.

By the way, what's up with the fact that 31% of Americans prefer wine, while only 28% prefer beer? This nation truly is in decline.

Romney for Veep?

Go check out the discussion going on over at Hot Air over whether or not adding Mitt Romney to the GOP ticket would be a good idea or not.

From my perspective, adding Romney to the ticket would be a net gain due to his extensive business experience, his reputation as a "fixer" and his tremendous fundraising abilities. Romney was my #2 pick behind McCain and I would see the combination of the two men as a very strong team.

However there are also some drawbacks that must be examined as well:

1. The "White Guy" factor: Teaming Romney with McCain gives the GOP an extremely whitebread ticket in a year when the opposition will be breaking historical ground with their nominee. Granted, we Republicans value a person's abilities over identity politics, but there are a number of very qualified candidates who could lend som ediversity to the GOP ticket, thereby negating a Dem talking point in the general election.

2. The "Conservative" factor: While many conservatives rallied around Romney late in the campaign when he seemed to be the only viable alternative to John McCain, I think that real questions remain about the authenticity of Romney's positions in this campaign. McCain already has problems with the conservative base and he needs a teammate who can motivate them. I am not convinced that Romney can do that, since much of his support was really just anti-McCain fervor.

3. The "Geographic" factor: Frankly, Romney will bring nothing to the ticket from a geographic standpoint. Massachusetts will not go for McCain and Utah would never go for a Dem. It is possible, I suppose, that Romney could put Michigan in play,. However, I think McCain may do that on his own, with an assist from America's Next Worst Governor (once Spitzer resigns, that is), Jennifer Granholm.

On the other hand, I do not think that Romney's Mormonism would be much of a factor in the general election. While some conservatives may have been swayed to support other Republican candidates in the primaries due to discomfort with the tenets of Romney's religion, I do not believe that, by and large, those conservatives would sit on their hands or vote Democratic in November for that reason. Primaries and General elections are very different affairs with very different motivations driving their participants.

All said, I think Romney would be a good choice, but I am eager to see what the other options are.

Surprise: John Kerry Makes No Sense

Oh John Kerry, how we've missed you.

Our favorite whipping boy from 2004 is back, this time playing the role of "elder statesman" in supporting Barack Obama's bid for the White House. Unfortunately, nonesense like this is not going to help Obama:


Barack Obama has more foreign policy experience than Ronald Reagan? Really? Reagan had been studying and speaking out about the threat of communism for thirty-some years before he was elected President. Also notice that Kerry failed to mention one important person, the GOP nominee: John McCain!

What possible metric is Kerry using to measure Obama's "foreign policy" experience? Number of votes on the floor of the US Senate? That's setting the experience bar pretty low.

Barack Obama has never served in the military. He was first elected to public office in 1996 and was elected to the US Senate in 2004. In those 11 years he has no major legislative achievements to speak of. I would call Obama an empty suit, but that would be an insult to the suit.

If John Kerry thinks the experience debate is a battleground that is favorable to Barack Obama, then bring it on.

The Democratic Cubs Complex

I want to apologize to any Republican Cubs fans out there who might be offended by the thought, but there is something that strikes me about the way this Democratic nomination contest has progresed that makes me think of Chicago Cubs fans.

First of all it is funny how quickly things have switched from everyone talking about a contentious GOP contest that could go all the way to the convention, to now having a consensus GOP candidate watching the two Dems battle it out for their party's nod.

But it also strikes me that there is a bit of Democrat paranoia coming into play in this contest as well. I am not saying this is true of all Democratic primary voters, but it may be one of many factors at play.

Basically, it seems as though the Democrats are so used to losing elections over the past 14 years that they are deathly afraid of choosing the wrong candidate and blowing their best chance to win back the White House.

Of course, the conventional wisdom is that 2008 is a Democratic year. However, there seems to be a part of the Democratic Party psyche that, like Cubs fans, fears high expectations. When Hillary was ahead, the fear was that her negatives were too high for her to win. Then, once Obama went on his long winning streak, the fears about his lack of experience seemed to creep to the fore. It is as if the the Democrats just can't bring themselves to pull the trigger on either candidate for fear of having to explain away another electoral failure in November.

Of course, if they did collapse this fall, they would probably just find some way to blame it on the GOP's version of Bartman (aka Karl Rove).

John McCain: Republican Nominee

Congratulations to John McCain who locked up the Republican nomination tonight after sweeping primaries in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont. I also want to say a quick thank you to Mike Huckabee for running a spirited and honorable campaign for President. I certainly don't think we've heard the last of Mr. Huckabee.

With word that President Bush will formally endorse McCain tomorrow it is time for ALL Republicans to put our small differences aside and rally behind the nominee of our Party so that we can focus on the much greater differences between those of us in the GOP and the two much worse options presented by the Democrats.

I am a conservative and I have not always been a fan of John McCain, but I chose to support him for President for a few reasons:

1) John McCain is the one leader of either Party who is best equipped to bring the War in Iraq to a swift and victorious conclusion. I firmly believe that this is the hope of the vast majority of Americans and that neither of the Democrats would be able to accomplish both of those aims. I have no doubt that John McCain, as a former POW, wants nothing less than for all of our brave troops to come home from this war as soon as possible. However, as a soldier he also understands why it is so important that we finish the fight and protect the long-term security interests of the United States in the Middle East.

2) John McCain is basically a conservative and would govern in a manner much more acceptable to conservatives like me than would either potential Democratic nominee. John McCain is pro-life, he supports the 2nd Amendment, he believes in reducing the size and power of the federal government, he has fought his entire career against wasteful government spending, he believes in free trade and lower taxes, he supports conservative justices for the federal courts. Certainly, there is an independent streak to him that sometimes infuriates conservatives. However, his basic beliefs are conservative ones and as President he would be a vauable champion against the ever-expanding glut of government largess.

3) He can win. McCain beats Hillary on experience and he beats Obama on change. He is the one Republican that the Democrats won't be able to paint as "Bush-lite" because everyone already knows him. Furthermore, he is extremely well respected by independents AND Democrats. While McCain has taken a lot of flack for teaming with Democrats, he has done what the American people expect their leaders to do, he hasn't caved in to them, but rather has reached out on those issues where ther is common ground to be found and has gotten things done.

Granted, I don't agree with all of the results of those efforts, but if America is looking to move past partisanship, who should they look to to lead the way? The most liberal Senator in the US Senate who has ducked every controversial debate in his short and undistinguished career? Or the one guy who has put his political future on the line time after time to actually get things done?

John McCain is far and away the best choice for President in 2008. Of that much, I am absolutely certain. I will be making that case here and wherever I go over the next eight months. I hope that all Republicans and everyone else who agrees that we need to keep our country safe, strong and prosperous will join me in that effort.

JohnMcCain.com

My Take on McCain's Age

Basically it boils down to this.

At some point the next big attack on America or one of her allies will come and whoever the next President is will be placed in the position of having to make some very difficult decisions in a very short period of time that could have far-reaching implications on the lives and futures of 300+ million Americans, and possibly the world.

When that happens, who would you trust more to make the right call: one of your sweet-talking, slacker buddies from college, or your no-nonsense, ornery old grandfather?

I'll take granddad, thanks. And it ain't even close.

Huckabee for Senate?

There seems to be a movement afoot to convince Presidential candidate and former Arkansas Governor to abandon his long-shot bid for the White House and perhaps throw his hat into the Senate '08 ring against Arkansas' Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor.

Both the National Review and the Weekly Standard have floated that possibility today and I think it's a great idea. Given the sheer number of seats that the Republicans will have to defend just to stay at 49 in the Senate, putting another Democratic seat in play would be huge.

As it stands, Louisiana Dem Mary Landrieu looks to be the only Dem incumbent with a real race on her hands. Compare that to strong challenges to GOP seats in places like Minnesota, Virginia, and New Hampshire and we need all the help we can get this fall.

If Mike Huckabee really wants to endear himself to the GOP faithful and build his base for another run in 2012, what better way than as a sitting U.S. Senator?

Do it, Mike!

Counterintuitive

So the conventional wisom in the GOP Presidential Primary is that Mike Huckabee is being a pest and hurting the Republican Party by not ceeding the stage to John McCain already. As a Mccain supporter you might think that Huckabee's stubbornness annoys me. You'd be wrong.

If Mike Huckabee were to leave the campaign there would be no reason for the media to continue covering the GOP except for the occassional "What is John McCain up to Today?" story. As it is, the media has to at least continue covering the Republicans until someone clinches the nomination. I really don't see the drawback in that. Further, it keeps the McCain camp from getting lazy and as far as I can tell it isn't hindering them from focusing on the General Election at all.

I would compare it to the difference between the Red Sox and teh Rockies in last year's World Series. The Colorado Rockies easily won the NLCS and had to wait 8 days before playing Game 1 against Boston. 8 days is a lifetime in a sport where you play 6 or 7 games a week for 7 months. The Red Sox , however, had to go the distance to win the ALCS and they carried that momentum into the World Series, where they won that too.

While Huckabee's presence in the race does delay the merging of McCain's campaign apparatus with the RNC's resources, I really don't see many other negatives. It is not as if Huckabee is tearing McCain down and weakening him for the General Election. On the contrary I think he is keeping McCain sharp and also firing up a crucial part of our base that we will need come November.

What do you think?

Act II

Well, the first act of this Presidential campaign is pretty much in the books, folks. While it is still technically possible for both parties to go into the convention without a nominee, it increasingly looks like November 2008 is going to come down to a choice of John S. McCain v. Barack H. Obama.

While I have not always agreed with John McCain on every issue, I believe he is the best chance that the Republican Party has to retain the White House in 2008 and I will do nothing less than work my tail off to make sure that happens.

Make no mistake, I believe that the election of Barack Obama as President at this time in our nation's history would be a grave mistake. Behind all of his flowery (and borrowed) rhetoric is a complete lack of substance. Obama has never, in his brief legislative career, achieved anything of even minimal significance to this nation. In fact, he has completely steered away from taking a stand on any issues of even the remotest controversy. This is a clear contrast to McCain who, like it or not, is not afraid to stand up for what he believes in regardless of the political costs.

I will certainly have plenty to say in the weeks and months ahead about Barack Obama's complete lack of qualifications for the Office of President, but for now I think it is most significant to simply point out that, even as we are a continued global struggle against the scourge of radical Islamic terrorism, Barack Obama has clearly stated that, as President, he would unconditionally surrender a crucial battleground in that struggle to our enemies.

John McCain put his political career on the line by saying that he would rather win a war than win a campaign. That is the kind of courage and leadership that Americans expect from their Presidents, especially when we are at war. For that reason alone, John McCain is supremely more qualified than Barack Obama to hold the responsibility of being our Commander-in-Chief.

Act I is over folks. Enjoy the Intermission, stretch your legs, use the restrooms, and get some more popcorn. Act II is going to be a doozy.

Hillary Clinton is Tracy Flick

This afternoon a friend and I were watching the excellent movie "Election" on TV and we were both struck by how much Reese Witherspoon's character reminded us of Hillary Clinton. Well it turns out, we aren't the only ones who thought that. Thanks to the magic of Google and YouTube, the good people at Slate.com have put together this video called "Hillary's Inner Tracy Flick:"


Mean, Twisted, and Oh So True.

Faint Signs of the Obama Backlash

From the New York Times' Matt Bai:

I was surprised to find that a friend of mine, a lifelong Democrat who had been pledging his allegiance to Barack Obama all year, had stepped into the voting booth and suddenly changed is mind. He voted, instead, for Hillary Clinton, and here’s why: he’d watched that video online —you know, the one starring celebrities like will.i.am, Scarlett Johansson and Herbie Hancock—and he thought it made Obama look Hollywood smug, as if supporting him were this year’s version of wearing an AIDS ribbon on your lapel. My friend didn’t want anything to do with the latest chic cause, and he just couldn’t bring himself to pull the lever for the guy who now symbolized the things he liked least about Democratic politics, starting with all those stars who think they know more about America than the people who live in it.

Of course, this is but a single instance (which in marketing terms, is good enough to launch a national campaign). Still, I think we'll see a lot more of this...but with so much of the electoral abjectly surrendering to their irrational impulses, it make take a while.