Election 2007

Notable Losers

The WaPo has put together list of winners and losers from Tuesday's races. Nothing very original among the losers, except for a couple of understated, but devastating digs:

House Speaker William J. Howell (R-Stafford) - Democrats pick up four House seats this year. Since Howell became speaker in 2002, his party has lost a net of 11 House seats.

Someone really needs to have "the talk" with Howell. Regrettably, no one in the GOP Causus seems to have the stomach for it. Yet.

And then there was this one:

Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) - Now that Democrats will control both the governor's mansion and the state Senate, Kaine is promising he will now be able "to get things done." The pressure will be on Kaine to prove he can deliver. But the GOP-controlled House is making it clear they may not cooperate with the governor because they think he ran a negative campaign against their candidates.

In typical WaPo fashion, this is almost right. Yes, there is pressure now on Kaine to get things done. The obstacle he faces, however, will not necessarily be from the House. Oh yes, the House will put on a very good show and perhaps even be more cranky than it has been in recent times. But I suspect the things which will trouble him most will not come from the house, but the Senate.

Remember: Governors come and go, but legislators tend to stay around for a long time. And every one of the senators returned on Tuesday will be around long after Tim Kaine has left the stage.

Aftermath



Well it is the day after and the Democrats have successfully wrested away control of the State Senate, likely for the next four years. The should be congratulated on a well-fought campaign and should be proud of their victories. Yet, while our Dem friends are celebrating their recent run of success, I am more interested in what we as Republicans are going to do next.

First, the good news ('cause I'm just that type of guy). The good news is we still have control of the House of Delegates. The good news is that things didn't turn out nearly as bad as they might have. The good news is that Republicans won several very competitive races that prevented an even larger Democrat majority. The good news is that we have some very exciting elections coming up in 2008 and 2009 that we can really get motivated for. The good news is that we Republicans are still standing, still strong throughout the Commonwealth, and we have many state and local officials that we can be very proud of.

Of course, it is not all good news today. The bad news is that the Democrats are riding a very hot streak in Virginia, and that should cause us to reflect deeply on the direction of our party. The bad news is that the Democrats are energized, motivated and organized right now, and we are not. The bad news is we got beat on our own turf in this election and there is no excuse for that.

The simple fact is that what we as Republicans have been doing for the last three elections has not been working and it is time to seriously address our problems. We can no longer continue to blame other people or blame circumstances out of our control for our defeats. While there is certainly some disappointment over GOP failures at the federal level, we must step up and take responsibility for our own state. Putting a band-aid on the problem is not going to fix it.

It is time for us Republicans to step up. I am still proud to be a member of this party and I believe that we have a great deal to fight for. What we need now is competent leadership, effective organization, and a relevant and coherent message to carry to the people of Virginia. It is time to put our differences aside and work together for the good of the Commonwealth.

I am issuing a challenge to all Virginia Republicans who believe that we are not living up to our past or our promise. I am issuing a challenge to all Virginia Republicans who want to see our Commonwealth back out in front, leading the nation in innovative conservative government. I am issuing a challenge to all Virginia Republicans who are tired of old excuses and blame games and who care more about the strength of our Party than their own personal glory.

If you are up to the challenge, email me at chriso@sicsemper.com. I don't have the answers, but I know together we can find them. I just want to know if anyone else is willing to fight.

UPDATE: Be sure to go read our friend, Mason Conservative's, post-election thoughts as well. Good stuff.

Ouch

This Jeff Schapiro line is just brutal:

The Democrats would now hold 44 seats in the 100-member House. Since Howell became speaker in 2003, Republican losses in the House have accelerated.

Tough, but true. Which makes the press release from Howell on the results downright laughable:

The true test of a strong majority is whether it can weather bad times as well as good. Tonight, our strong Republican majority in the House of Delegates endured despite a challenging political environment.

Another victory such as last night's, and they are undone.

You Must Choose . . . But Choose Wisely

Tomorrow, Virginians will go to the polls to elect all 140 members of the oldest legislative body in the western world, as well as numerous local officials. Before you cast your vote, however, I think it would be wise for voters to stop and think about the choice that lies before them.

There is no doubt that many Americans, myself included, are frustrated with the current level of leadership, on both sides of the aisle, in our Nation's Capital. However, tomorrow's elections simply are not about the President or Congress. These elections are about the Commonwealth of Virginia and our various localities. The candidates who are up for election should be assessed and judged upon their OWN records and ideas for the future. They should not be affirmed or dismissed based solely upon what goes on inside the beltway.

This is not to say that federal issues have no significance. Immigration is certainly a great example of an issue that has both federal and state implications. However, the candidates who are running Virginia's legislative elections ought to be judged upon their own immigration proposals. In other words, it is important for voters to look beyond the party labels, while understanding their importance as a shorthand for a general philosophy, and examine which candidates best represent their respective views of government.

From my perspective, there are some competent and hard-working legislators who have done a tremendous job representing the people of their districts but who are in danger of losing their seats as a result of voter frustration with their national Party or the President. Legislators like Jay O'Brien, Ken Cuccinelli and Nick Rerras have compiled solid records of service to their communities in their years in the General Assembly. I submit that the General Assembly and the State Senate would be greatly deprived to lose the contributions of these valuable public servants.

Further, I think it necessary to point out the differences between the legislature that we have now and the legislature we would have if the Democrats were to gain control of the upper chamber. Virginia voters must know that if they choose to put Democrats in power out of mere frustration, it will not be a gentle transition. Rather, the Democratic leadership in the State Senate would mark a sharp march to the left for our Commonwealth. In a Commonwealth that has always had a strong pro-business, pro-economic growth environment, we would see Yvonne Miller, who owns a 0% pro-business rating, as Chair of the Commerce and Labor Committee. In a Commonwealth that has always placed an emphasis on public safety and the rule of law, we would see Henry Marsh, who has opposed every major public safety reform in recent years, as Chair of the Courts and Justice Committee. And in a Commonwealth that has always valued its agricultural heritage and worked to encourage that vital segment of our economy, we would see Patsy Ticer of that huge farming community, the City of Alexandria, as Chair of the Agriculture Committee.

These are but a few examples of the marked departure from our traditional Virginia values that would be exemplified by giving control of the State Senate to the Democrats. Of course, you can add to these the efforts of our Governor to transform Virginia into a sanctuary state for illegal aliens and compound his mismanagement of the budget with a raft of new expensive spending proposals, and we have ourselves a very troubling outlook for our Commonwealth.

This said, I again urge the voters of Virginia to take a good look look at the candidates on the ballot tomorrow. Look at their records and ask yourself what they have proposed to do for the next 2-4 years. While many of us are frustrated with the recent political state of affairs in our Commonwealth and nation, we must ask whether the change we seek is change for a positive purpose, or merely change for change's sake. I, for one, have yet to hear any positive purpose articulated from the Governor or his party. That is one reason why, despite my frustrations, I am confident that it is, by and large, the Republican candidates on the ballot who will do the greatest good for our Commonwealth in the next legislative cycle.

While others may or may not come to the same conclusions, I hope that all who vote tomorrow will do so with a full understanding of the choice that they make, and the consequences of that choice.

One Week To Go



We are down to the final six outs of this campaign season and things are certainly getting interesting. Up until the last couple of weeks I'd have said that the GOP's chances of a comeback were about as long as Britney Spears'. However, in the past few weeks there seems to have been some positive movement for the Grand Old Party. As I see it, this can be attributed to a few key factors.

First, as Michael Barone points out in this column, it ain't 2006 anymore. Last year Democrats swept into control of Congress by riding on a wave of discontent with Republican leadership. Virginia Democrats would very much like to go back to that well one more time next week. Unfortunately for them, that well seems to have dried up like all the others around these parts recently. Further, as much as the Democrats try to make this election about President Bush, this is a STATE election and STATE issues will carry the day.

Second, GOP voters are coming home. While several Dem challengers in Virginia had been doing quite well running in GOP districts, the advantage seems to have tapered off a bit recently. It seems that, the closer we get to election day, the more people are going back to their comfort zone. While voters still might be a little miffed with the Republican leadership, and not without reason, I don't believe they want to empower the liberal fringe elements that would take over the reins of the State Senate if control of the chamber switches. The prospect of Democratic control suddenly looks a lot scarier once you actually start looking at the candidates they are running.

Third, beyond the breaking of the 2006 wave, the issues that are in the forefront of the 2007 campaign benefit conservatives. The fact is, Republicans have been at the forefront of every major reform in this State over the past 15 years. While we have met with mixed success in advancing our agenda in recent years, the fact remains that it is Republicans who are advancing and looking for ways to continue improving this great Commonwealth. It is Republicans who want to find ways to deal with the problem of illegal immigration, while our Governor frustrates those efforts. It is Republicans who have worked, and will continue to work, to try and find a solution to the transportation issue, while our Governor sat idly by hoping the compromise would fail. And while I concede that Republicans have sometimes focused too much on taxes and not enough on spending, do you really think that the Democrats are capable on scaling back our recent budgetary excesses? I certainly don't.

This is an important election and I believe that Virginians are starting to look at their options and realize the choice that faces them next week. On the one hand, they have Republicans who are making tough decisions and working to find real solutions on behalf of their constituents. On the other hand, they have Democrats who have not only obstructed past progress, but who, if elected, would transform Virginia from a sober, conservative, prosperity-friendly government into a laboratory of extreme left-wing experimentation. Frankly, it is a risk that is just not worth taking.

What We're For (and What They're Against)



Much of what we've been talking about around here recently has to do with the legacy of recent Republican control of the General Assembly and whether continuing that control would be a good or bad thing for the Republican party in general.

However, elections are not just about what you've done, but also about what you are going to do. Unfortunately, the Democrats in this election are not at all interested in providing voters with a positive vision for the future. What they are interested in is bashing President Bush, bashing Congressional Republicans, and trying to convince Virginia voters that the Republicans are mean and nasty guys who are going to steal your lunch money. If you ask me, the main reason for this strategy is simply that the Democrats do not WANT Virginians to know what they are for because they know that if their extreme liberal agenda were exposed, they would never win.

To put it simply, these are not your father's Democrats and to elect them would be to approve of, among other things, a higher tax burden on all Virginians, a rollback of Virginia's right-to-work and gun rights laws, a vast expansion of state bureaucracy, providing sanctuary to illegal immigrants, and a fiscally irresponsible raid of the Commonwealth's rainy day fund at a time of economic growth.

On the other hand, the Republicans currently running for state office are putting forth a positive vision for Virginia's future and working to accomplish real governmental reform, rather than simply throw wrenches in the system for political gain. Like it or not, these Republicans worked hard to find a compromise solution on transportation funding without the statewide tax increase that Governor Kaine desired. While the legislation wasn't perfect, I'd much rather have Republicans than Democrats doing the tweaking next year that's needed to make it better.

As for what else the GOP hopes to accomplish, there is still a great deal left to do in terms of regulatory reform, improving Virginia's ability to help enforce federal immigration laws, meeting our school construction needs, improving access to quality health care, improving mental health services, and enforcing fiscal responsibility by protecting the Rainy Day Fund and reforming the property tax assessment process. These are just a few of the more than 20 proposals that GOP legislators have rolled out as priorities for the next legislative session.

Of course, the best way to derail these positive agenda items is to give control of one or both houses of the General Assembly to the liberal Democrats. All of us are frustrated by a lot of the things going on in Washington these days, but this election is about Richmond, not Washington. That's why, when you go to the polls this Election Day, it is important to ask yourself what the candidates are FOR, not just who they're against. I have no doubt that if the voters of Virginia ask themselves this question, the Republicans will still be in control come Wednesday morning.

Good Copy's Cliche Sunday

I no longer subscribe to the RTD, but whenever the NYT delivery is late on a Sunday, I'll nip in to see what's become of some of my old hobby-horses.

Like Jeff "Good Copy" Schapiro, who today serves up a column that could have (and might just have been) written in 2003: How those dastardly "hyper-conservatives" are looking to take over that most staid, noble, venerable and, yes, centrist of institutions, the sclerotic Virginia Senate.

Cutting through the forest of cliches, the reader learns that an enlightened few call Dick Saslaw "Sassy," which almost, but not quite, induces the vomit reflex. We learn that a panoply of potential Democratic committee chairmen, aided by the Republican Gang of Four, would somehow be able to keep the Democratic left at bay (presumably with the aid of mirrors, bits of string or perhaps mustard gas) and that the Republican House is, as ever, a ticking time-bomb of flat-earth nihilism.

And let us not forget power-napper Henry Marsh.

Nevermind. I thought we were through the cliche forest, but it seems invincible.

As Schapiro is no doubt aware, things look very bad indeed for those mouth-breathing hyper-conservatives. And not just in the Senate. Of course, things don't look so hot for the angelic Republican moderates, either (JMDD is trailing badly, Stuart, seeking to replace Chichester, is lagging as well and poor Nick Rerras is staring down an on-rushing train, too).

And let also us not forget Walter Stosch's near-death experience in the June primary. Lord knows I won't (and here's hoping Joe Blackburn makes another run in 2011).

Nope, things don't look good. And if the voting began today, then "Sassy" and the rest of his happy-fun team of middling merry-makers would be cruising toward the majority.

Which will suit Jeff just fine. Though, sadly, it will also mean he'll have to craft a whole new set of cliches for future columns.

Is Losing Really Good Medicine?



I apologize for the length of this post, but I wanted to respond to a few of Norm’s points below because obviously he is not alone in this thinking, as Lighthorse Harry shockingly pointed out. Here is why I think that hoping a loss will purge the party of undesireable philosophies is misguided thinking.

First of all, last week I excoriated the religious conservatives (a group of which I count myself a member) who were threatening to bolt the party if Giuliani was nominated and labeled their efforts as "foolishness." On that, Norm agreed with me. However, I must now point out that the argument cuts both ways and applies equally to economic conservatives (of whom, again, I count myself a member) who go running for the exits every time anyone dares deviate from their particular doctrines of faith. Rather than accusing good conservatives of "selling out" and abandoning our Party whenever we come to the slightest disagreement, I believe we should at the very least act in the manner in which President Reagan advised when dealing with the Soviet Union: "Trust, but verify."

Please do read on...

Republicans For a Reason

Today, Republican leaders took to the skies of the Commonwealth to make their case for maintaining Republican control of both houses of the General Assembly. The Washington Post's Tim Craig filed this report this afternoon highlighting the key points of the GOP's message.

Essentially, the GOP is asking Virginia's voters to look at the numerous accomplishments of the Republican legislature over the past 7 years, as well as their ambitious goals for the future, and contrast that with the Democrat's campaign of Bush-bashing and a complete lack of positive initiatives for Virginia.

This evening, I had the opportunity to participate in a bloggers conference call with Party Chairman John Hager, Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling, Attorney General Bob McDonnell and several other bloggers.

Hager, Bolling and McDonnell all did an excellent job of laying out the GOP record of accomplishments on education reform, welfare reform, public safety reform, tax reform, transportation reform, and a host of other achievements. Further, they stressed the importance of pointing out not only that the Democrats have absolutely nothing to offer in terms of a positive agenda, but also that electing a liberal Democrat General Assembly to go with this liberal Democrat Governor would make two serious Left turns for our Commonwealth. As we all know, two left turns makes one big U-Turn.

I will have much more from this conference call throughout the week, and I cannot stress enough how important it is for all Republicans to get on board these last 29 days and make sure that our legislature remains in Republican hands.

I also look forward to reading what the other bloggers on the call have to say so stay tuned to Scott's Morning Brew, Leslie Carbone, and others for follow-up.

The Final Countdown


I don't know about you guys, but there's nothing like some 80's hair metal to get me cranked up for the last month of a legislative election year.

While things are quieter around the blogosphere than during other elections, make no mistake that there is much at stake on November 6. Starting tomorrow our Republican leaders are going to be traveling the state making their case before the people of Virginia to keep control of our legislature in GOP hands. I, for one, think the argument is a convincing one and I hope to aid them in making it heard.

If you haven't done so before now, now is the time to get out and start helping our Republican candidates across this Commonwealth. Also, Tuesday, October 9th is the last day you can register to vote for next month's elections. So, if you haven't done so already, what are you waiting for?

Visit the Virginia State Board of Elections' website for more information. Lets give it all we've got from now until Election Day!

The Fairfax RINO

Now it's clear to me why at least one conservative with very deep pockets is now writing checks to Democrats. From today's RTD profile of Sen. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis:

On the campaign trail, Devolites Davis describes herself as an independent, a moderate who can best represent a centrist constituency. At a forum Thursday night before Equality Fairfax, a gay-rights organization, she called herself a "RINO" -- Republican in Name Only -- a derogatory term used by members of the GOP's conservative wing.

"I've had a primary every time I've run for office except for this time because my party feels I'm not conservative enough," she told the forum.

Possible Prosecutor Misconduct in Tate/Vogel Race

Something big may be brewing in Loudoun County. Here's the tease from the Northern Virginia Daily:

The prosecutor who began the investigation of former Republican state Senate candidate Mark D. Tate leaked grand jury information to the media and was actively pushing negative stories about Tate, a former reporter on the story said under oath Thursday.

Tate, of Loudoun County, challenged fellow Republican Jill Holtzman Vogel for the chance to win the senate seat being vacated by Sen. H. Russell Potts, Jr., of Winchester. He was indicted by a Loudoun County Grand Jury on nine counts of perjury and two counts of election fraud just three weeks before the Republican primary.

Lawyers for Tate have said from the beginning that the prosecution was an unprecedented political maneuver designed to knock Tate out of the Senate race.

The full story will appear tomorrow...and it looks like a barn-burner.

Fear and Loathing in the Mushy Middle

The WaPo finds GOP "party leaders" hiding under the bed this morning, wondering what happened to them in Tuesday's primaries.

Russ Potts is quoted, adding a dash of zaniness to an already deeply amusing piece.

It's not hard to figure out what happened in those races, really.

A lot of people were upset with the course set by some members of the Senate. It may have been over taxes, transportation, smoking bans, property rights, schools, tupperware or chewing gum. Doesn't really matter. Discontent finds a way. And, unless one can dish out nearly a million dollars, incumbents are generally going to have a bad time of it.

Whether that discontent is now spent and will result in the Democrats taking formerly Republican seats is an open question. And whether people like Walter Stosch have learned anything from their most recent dialogue with the voters is also open to discussion (I don't think he's learned a blessed thing).

On a side note, the WaPo's Michael Shear is leaving the Richmond beat for the paper's national desk. Just when things are getting interesting.

Primary Pictures

Yesterday, and elsewhere I speculated on a few threads that seemed to have emerged from the primary elections.

After chewing things over with some more folks last night, a few things seem to be coming together. And one of them is that George Allen may have stepped in a steaming pile of trouble.

My sources, and the sources they've spoken with, are almost incandescent with rage over Allen's endorsements and active work on behalf of incumbents like Walter Stosch. Between the direct mail and the radio ads that provided a bit of right-wing cover for Stosch, the sense is that Allen has jilted them (a feeling that's shared by Benny Lambert -- "Lambert said his support of Allen probably cost him his job. 'I thought the Allen folks would have helped me more, but it didn't work out that way.'" Welcome to the club, Mr. Lambert).

Whether these hard feelings will remain in place long enough to do Allen any serious, long-term harm is debatable. But they are real enough right now that Allen might have a hard time beating "Other" in a two-way race for dog catcher.

Another very interesting picture emerging is the role and future of VCAP. The organization played no role in the Bell/Smith or Williams/Stall races. Where they did play, the record was, to be charitable, mixed. Some have called VCAP a paper tiger and others wonder if it's involvement is a liability or a help. Given its resources, the organization is no paper tiger. But its role in future races will be a subject of debate in conservative circles for some time.

There were a few humorous pictures that came out of Tuesday's results, as well, including the victory of Joe Morrissey in the 74th district. Morrissey is...colorful. Disbarred from the practice of law, noted for his fightin' manner (literally) and so much more, he managed to win over the former incumbent, Floyd Miles, and one-time Richmond city council member Jackie Jackson. Morrissey had former Doug Wilder advisor Paul Goldman in his corner, which makes it logical to wonder whether Joe isn't Wilder's (unspoken) choice for the seat. When you add that Wilder (quietly) helped Reva Trammell oust Jackson in their council race in 2006, it makes for even more entertaining speculation.

But on a happy note, my Sorensen classmate Margie Vanderhye won the 34th district Democratic primary. I may disagree with her policy ideas, but there's far more to life than politics. She's just good people, and the HOD could use more folks like her.

(Cross posted at Bacon's Rebellion)