Who knew that a bespectacled blogger from Charlottesville was the kryptonite that weakens the Virginia Republican Party?
I kid, of course. I know Waldo isn't saying that he's personally responsible for Democratic successes, but he sure is having fun talking about it. Of course, I would too if the Republicans were on the same hot streak.
The thing about streaks, however, is that they don't last forever. Just ask the Patriots.
Now I am certainly not saying that the Democrats have just gotten lucky over the past few years. Attributing Democratic success to "luck" is just a rationalization that will only lead to more failure. We should credit the Dems for having taken advantage of their opportunities, while the Republicans have largely squandered theirs.
However, the picture is not quite as bleak for the RPV as Waldo would have us believe. For proof, you need only read this excellent post by Mason Conservative, who offers a sort of counterpoint to Wado's Democratic boosterism.
In fact, there are a number of positive signs that we Republicans are turning things around. One is the fact that the Republicans in the Senate actually seem to be functioning like a caucus again. Another has been the outstanding leadership of LG Bill Bolling and AG Bob McDonnell, who have not shied away from confronting the Governor's flawed policies on issues of importance to all Virginians, like Illegal Immigration and Fiscal Responsibility.
Further, I find it humorous that Waldo takes a post from Bob Gibson's blog about Paul Harris' potential run for RPV Chair and somehow turns it into a rant about Jeff Frederick how "far-right" and "out of the mainstream" the Virginia GOP has gotten.
To me, that story just reinforces the idea that there are a number of young Republicans across this Commonwealth who feel it is time for a new generation of leaders to step forward. You are hearing a lot about guys like Chris Saxman, Jeff Frederick, Paul Harris, Mark Obenshain, Ryan McDougle, Ken Cuccinelli and Corey Stewart, among others. That doesn't sound like a Republican Party that is dying to me. That sounds like a Republican Party that is young, vibrant and full of ideas to lead this Party forward.
Sure, there's a lot of work to be done. The Democrats believe that they can turn Virginia blue in this Presidential election. They believe that Mark Warner will have a cakewalk to the U.S. Senate. They believe that they'll be able to take the House of Delegates and keep the Governor's mansion in '09. They are confident and motivated.
Whether they are right, however, is a different story. Victory never comes easy. It is going to take a lot of Republicans rolling up their sleeves and getting down in the trenches to get it done. It is going to take good leadership, good campaigns, and dedicated volunteers. But it can be done.
I say it's about time we broke this blue streak.
The GOP Convention will tell a lot...
Anyone familiar with the GOP woes in the Old Dominion knows that most stem from purity questions.
Bob Marshall's Senate bid is nothing more than establishing a "purity" test. With all respect towards Delegate Marshall, he has nothing in terms of resources, staff, name recognition, etc. that is suitable for a campaign against Mark Warner. Can you say "sure loser"?
However, Gilmore has put together a semi-credible campaign team and he is starting to form the outline of a contest of ideas with Mark Warner.
Given that McCain looks primed to win VA by 6-10 points, the GOP should not allow this convention to get out of control. If McCain does better than expected and Gilmore is able to win some debates, he may have an outside chance of defeating Mark Warner. However, if the GOP convention turns into a purity test about abortion, etc. and turns off a significant number of activists, the GOP will have booted another Senate seat away.
If, as Old Zach claims, this new generation is ready to claim the leadership of the party and put it back on a winning track, they need to work together to make sure the convention doesn't spin out of control in a ludicrous contest b/w a nonentity like Marshall and a semi-credible candidate like Gilmore.
We'll See :)
The great thing about blogs is that they're forever (at least in archive.org. :) As with every forecast I've ever made in 12 years of blogging, anybody can look back and see whether I was right or wrong. I'll often look back at my own prognostications and see how they were borne out, though I'm generally cautious enough in my claims that doing so isn't problematic enough. :) It just seems so very, very clear to me that Republicans are headed into a dark, lonely place that I haven't hesitated to make that forecast since...oh...I guess round about 2003 is when I started declaring that it was all downhill for the RPV.
We can check back in come November 2009 and we'll see how I'm doing.
BTW, I'm not "bespectacled." :)
My fault, Waldo. Didn't you
My fault, Waldo. Didn't you wear glasses at one point? Or was that just a fashion accessory? I always thought that was the one thing we had in common. :)
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