We are down to the final six outs of this campaign season and things are certainly getting interesting. Up until the last couple of weeks I'd have said that the GOP's chances of a comeback were about as long as Britney Spears'. However, in the past few weeks there seems to have been some positive movement for the Grand Old Party. As I see it, this can be attributed to a few key factors.
First, as Michael Barone points out in this column, it ain't 2006 anymore. Last year Democrats swept into control of Congress by riding on a wave of discontent with Republican leadership. Virginia Democrats would very much like to go back to that well one more time next week. Unfortunately for them, that well seems to have dried up like all the others around these parts recently. Further, as much as the Democrats try to make this election about President Bush, this is a STATE election and STATE issues will carry the day.
Second, GOP voters are coming home. While several Dem challengers in Virginia had been doing quite well running in GOP districts, the advantage seems to have tapered off a bit recently. It seems that, the closer we get to election day, the more people are going back to their comfort zone. While voters still might be a little miffed with the Republican leadership, and not without reason, I don't believe they want to empower the liberal fringe elements that would take over the reins of the State Senate if control of the chamber switches. The prospect of Democratic control suddenly looks a lot scarier once you actually start looking at the candidates they are running.
Third, beyond the breaking of the 2006 wave, the issues that are in the forefront of the 2007 campaign benefit conservatives. The fact is, Republicans have been at the forefront of every major reform in this State over the past 15 years. While we have met with mixed success in advancing our agenda in recent years, the fact remains that it is Republicans who are advancing and looking for ways to continue improving this great Commonwealth. It is Republicans who want to find ways to deal with the problem of illegal immigration, while our Governor frustrates those efforts. It is Republicans who have worked, and will continue to work, to try and find a solution to the transportation issue, while our Governor sat idly by hoping the compromise would fail. And while I concede that Republicans have sometimes focused too much on taxes and not enough on spending, do you really think that the Democrats are capable on scaling back our recent budgetary excesses? I certainly don't.
This is an important election and I believe that Virginians are starting to look at their options and realize the choice that faces them next week. On the one hand, they have Republicans who are making tough decisions and working to find real solutions on behalf of their constituents. On the other hand, they have Democrats who have not only obstructed past progress, but who, if elected, would transform Virginia from a sober, conservative, prosperity-friendly government into a laboratory of extreme left-wing experimentation. Frankly, it is a risk that is just not worth taking.
There are two possibilities
One is a Democratic wave crashing into NoVa and swamping people like Devolites-Davis and O'Brien or...
...a status quo election, with a few new faces here and there, but no fundamental change in numbers.
I used to think the latter was more likely. But now I think the GOP will be lucky to lose only the Senate. I'd like to be proven wrong, Zach, I would. But I cannot believe that they have suddenly discovered their principles in these last few weeks and that folks are buying it. Perhaps they have, and if so, then more power to them (literally).
If not, then Republicans had best be prepared to reflect on their message, and their character. Being in the minority will certainly give them more opportunities to do so.
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